Monday, November 01, 2004

The Big Electoral College Prediction! 

I'm overloaded with stuff.

I don't know what to write about.

I'm confident in a Kerry win now, so here's my prediction about results tomorrow (for those who care):

Kerry wins IA, OH, PA, WI, MN, OR, WA, and NH (and NJ and Hawaii for all weirdos who insist these are now swing states).

Bush takes FL, AZ, NM, WV, NV, CO, and VA.

Everything else will shake out as expected.

That gives Bush 259 electoral votes and Kerry a winning 279

I would also say that this is a baseline conservative prediction from a Kerry supporter. I think that given the "undecideds break for the challenger" rule and the "pollsters don't call cell phone or VOIP users" new dynamic, that Kerry could win by a larger margin than expected and could end up taking some states that would be surprising to most (think AZ, CO, etc.).

On the other hand, Hawaii could go Bush, but won't swing the result, and FL could go to Kerry, which would make for a blowout.

If my baseline prediction is correct (and I do think it the most likely outcome), then I will go buy myself a big cookie.

UPDATE: Oh yeah. One more prediction that is a key underpinning to the predictions above. There is going to be a huge (as in historically huge...massive) voter turnout this year. If the early voting results have anything to say about it, this prediction will turn out accurate (and is therefore only part prediction, part extrapolation, but let's not get all lawyery about it).

I also think the youth vote will actually play the role that so many people have claimed it would play in the past, though it never did.

UPDATE: Iowa added as a swing state (duh) and for Kerry (not-as-duh, but it'll happen).


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